ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant’s share price crashed, tumbling 11% on Wednesday. The stock crashed after the ASML confirmed uncertain growth warning for 2026. ASML lost over $30 billion in market value after the stock crash sending shockwaves through global tech markets, putting doubt on the implications for the broader semiconductor and AI industries.
The warning for no growth in 2026 comes even as ASML beat top and bottom-line expectations for the Q2 earnings. ASML missed the expected guidance for the current quarter while it decreased its own forecast for the rest of the year.
ASML growth uncertainty due to tariff
Most of the semiconductor companies including ASML has been grappling with uncertainty created by U.S. tariff policy.
ASML’s Q3 revenue forecast was between 7.4 billion euros and 7.9 billion euros, which was just below the market expectations of 8.3 billion euros.
ASML 2026 growth warning
As per ASML, it expects 2025’s net sales to grow 15%, narrowing its guidance from a previously announced forecast of between 30 billion euros to 35 billion euros. Taking the growth numbers revenue would fall down to 32.5 billion in 2025.
ASML also gave 2026 growth warning. As per CEO Christophe Fouquet, “Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong”. He added, “At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”
ASML earnings report
For the current quarter, ASML beat analyst estimates on top and bottom line and on the key net bookings figure.
Here’s how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the second quarter:
ASML’s net sales: 7.7 billion euros ($8.95 billion) versus 7.52 billion euros expected
Net profit of ASML: 2.29 billion euros vs 2.04 billion euros expected
In its own previous forecast issued in April, ASML had said it expected second-quarter net sales of between 7.2 billion euros and 7.7 billion euros.
Analysts anticipated net bookings would come in at 4.19 billion euros over the April-June stretch. ASML reported net bookings of 5.5 billion euros.
ASML chip demand outlook matters
ASML is one of the most important semiconductor supply chain companies in the world. ASML is the linchpin of the global semiconductor supply chain. It makes extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, which are required to manufacture the most advanced chips in the world, such as those designed by Apple and Nvidia.
Companies like Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. are customers of ASML.
ASML is also the world’s exclusive supplier of EUV lithography machines. These tools known as High NA which are larger than a double-decker bus and can cost more than $400 million each, are key to ASML’s future growth plans.
ASML said it shipped one High NA tool in the second quarter.
ASML stock crash
After the declaration of ASML growth uncertainty, market’s response was swift and severe as the share price fell by 11%. This stock drop has been ASML’s steepest single-day drop of 16% since October 2024 after poor Q3 earnings.
In contrast, AI chipmakers such as Nvidia and AMD rose, buoyed by positive news on U.S. export policy to China, highlighting a divergence between chip designers and the equipment supply chain.
