Tesla posted its Q3 vehicle production and deliveries report on Wednesday that was below estimate. Tesla’s stock fell as much as 3.7% after the delivery report. Analysts were expecting deliveries of 463,310 in the period ended September 30, according to estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount.
Tesla reported a smaller-than-expected rise in Q3 deliveries on Wednesday as incentives and financing deals failed to lure enough customers for its aging electric vehicles, sending shares down more than 6%.
That puts the EV maker already grappling with rising competition and slowing demand for EVs at risk of its first-ever decline in annual deliveries after years of rapid growth.
Tesla missed delivery estimates
Here are the key numbers:
Tesla’s total deliveries Q3 2024: 462,890
Tesla total production Q3 2024: 469,796
Based on some other estimates, Tesla missed by even more. According to LSEG, analysts on average were expecting deliveries of 469,828 vehicles.
An independent researcher widely followed by Tesla fans who publishes as “Troy Teslike” predicted the EV maker would report deliveries of 472,000 in the quarter.
In its most recent survey of 30 analysts’ estimates, Tesla had said analysts were expecting 461,978 deliveries, which would suggest a beat.
Tesla’s financial discolosure
Deliveries are not defined in Tesla’s financial disclosures, but are the closest approximation to units sold reported by the company. It’s one of the most closely watched metrics on Wall Street.
In the year-ago period, Tesla reported 435,059 deliveries and production of 430,488 EVs. Last quarter, the company reported 443,956 deliveries, and production of 410,831 vehicles.
Competition for Tesla
Tesla is facing increased competitive pressure, especially in China, from companies like BYD and Geely, along with a new generation of automakers, including Li Auto and Nio.
In the U.S., EV competitors like Rivian are maturing, while legacy automakers Ford and General Motors are selling more electric vehicles after walking back more ambitious goals for electrification.
On Wednesday, Ford reported sales of 23,509 EVs in the third quarter, marking a 12% increase from the prior year.
GM this week reported a roughly 60% increase in EV sales for the third quarter from a year earlier. Still, its electric business is tiny compared with Tesla’s, with just 32,100 units sold in the latest period, accounting for 4.9% of the company’s total sales.
Tesla’s EV outlook
Tesla has not issued specific guidance for 2024 deliveries, but executives have said they expect a lower delivery growth rate this year versus last despite the company having added a new vehicle, the angular stainless steel Cybertruck, to its lineup.
The company also said on Wednesday that it deployed 6.9 GWh of energy storage products in the quarter.
Shares of Tesla climbed 32% in the third quarter, erasing their loss for the year in the process. The stock is now up almost 4% in 2024, trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 19%.
Tesla’s profit
In its Q3 earnings report later this month, investors will be particularly focused on profit margins.
Tesla self-driving cars
Tesla has continued to offer attractive financing options and an array of incentives to drive sales volume in recent months in China as well as in the U.S. Prior to earnings, Tesla will host a marketing event on October 10, and is expected to show off the design of a “dedicated robotaxi.”
Musk has promised Tesla self-driving cars for years, but the company has yet to deliver. Meanwhile competitors like Waymo and Pony.ai have begun operating commercial robotaxi services.
